Upgrade of the hydrological Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning system


B-2.2 Subcomponent

It is insufficient for effective flood management to know the current hydrological and meteorological situation. Quantitative forecasts of water level changes (flows) are required, since only such forecasts enable timely decision as to the scale of planned operations. However, the primary task of hydrological forecasting is the on-line optimising of flood control system's operations in order to meet the predetermined criterion, usually minimising of losses. In other words, any properly working hydrological management system is expected to mitigate flood consequences, since the consequences we are likely to face anyway.

Hydrological system

There remains to be crucial an unobstructed and continuous access to credible observation results, independent from the time of the day and scale of the catastrophe, i.e. the telemetric system described above. On the other hand, simple calculations of the volume of information received from such system (for instance around 500 posts will operate in the Upper Odra and Upper Vistula catchments) with the average of 1 hour observation interval evidence the unsurpassable requirement of automated processing of the observation results. This will be delivered by the uniform IT system for hydrological management, aimed at:

  • Unification of the access to all observation results needed for the hydrological management and forecasting;
  • Streamlining and formalising of access to the information needed for forecasting and management;
  • Full access to the digital representation of meteorological situation and to numerical forecasts;
  • An effective system for the verification of the information used for forecasting;
  • Development of the platform compatible with mathematical models necessary for forecasting; and
  • Streamlining of the service management procedures applicable to the users and analyses.

Easy access to credible data on hydrological situation will enable the use of mathematical models for forecasting. This concerns both the existing Polish models and those successfully operated in other countries. Effort consuming though, this part of the B2 component will impact the final effect that is the forecast. It should be noted however, that quantitative meteorological analyses, to be improved within the Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning System, substantially influence the forecast quality and advance, particularly in the mountain regions.
Limnigraph on Oława, devastated by the July 1997 flood

Authors of implementation assumptions for this component appreciated importance of cooperation with the institutions responsible for response operations, in particular those responsible of operations of water engineering structures. The impact of such structure
(for instance large retention reservoirs) on the hydrological situation, including the forecast quality must not be neglected. It is also of importance for water dams' safety, since their destruction inevitably threatens the areas below the given reservoir. Therefore, the inter-dependency between water structures control and forecasts requires an effective information exchange system.

The task implied directly by the above description consist in ensuring least formalised and unrestricted access to hydrological information necessary for response operations.

The scope of work planned includes the design, development of software for and implementation of the modernized hydrological management and forecasting system and installation of the relevant computer hardware.

Functional and organisational relations
between the modernized elements
of the Hydrological and Meteorological Monitoring,
Forecasting and Protection System

The scope of work in this Subcomponent is also contingent upon relations between subcomponents. More specifically, the work may be broken down into the following:

Preparatory work:

  • Determination of the scope of the required geodesy measurements;
  • Development of methodology and collection of observation results required for calibration of forecasting models.

Design and studies:

  • Design of the Intelligent Technology for hydrological management and forecasting system;
  • Proposed structure of information exchange between subcomponents
  • Analysis of, and algorithm development for operation of water management structures;
  • Preparation of an alternative precipitation - runoff forecasting model for the mountain parts of the Odra and Vistula basins.

Software delivery:

  • The Intelligent Technology system for hydrological management and forecasting, including regional model preparation;
  • Adjustment of the existing standard forecasting models to enable their operation within the System.
  • Implementation of the Intelligent Technology system;
  • Calibration of all models prepared for the system and preparation of preliminary forecasting scenarios.

Given the circumstances, the targeted goal may only be achieved subject to strict coordination of the system design with the deign work under other subcomponents and effective completion of the preparatory work.

The effects expected

Installation of the planned equipment and training of the staff operating the hydrological management and forecasting system will allow for the use of forecasting models during response operations and in line with the current knowledge. The uniform system operation procedure and secured access to complete information required for forecasting will enable flawless forecasting in every IMGW unit dealing with hydrological management.