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The Hydrological and Meteorological Monitoring, Forecasting and Protection System
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The July 1997 flood in the southern catchments of the Odra and Vistula, the previous year floodings and the local floods of 1998 as well as the other disastrous natural phenomena (storms on the Baltic, gales, rapid temperature changes) evidenced the need for urgent modernization of the hydrological and meteorological management system operated in Poland by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management.
Frequently fatal and tragic, the consequences of hydrological and meteorological phenomena affect to a different extent all inhabitants of Poland and its technical, transport and telecommunication infrastructure. While the latter consequences may be quantified, human tragedy cannot.
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Winter 1996/1997 |
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A modern system for the natural environment monitoring and forecasting is one of the elements of the system ensuring safety of any state and its citizens. Such system should comprise subsystems for observation, measurement, telecommunications, data processing and forecasting, and the provision of warnings and information to the society, the state authorities and national economy.
The concept of such system has been long formulated by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. However, only in the recent years, supported with tragic experience of July '97 flooding, this concept was approved by the State authorities and funds were was mobilised in the form of the World Bank loan. The final version of the monitoring and forecasting programme includes flood hazard simulations, developed based on the long-leant experience of the Polish, European and global hydrological and meteorological services, associated within a specialised UN agency that is the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The final system concept derives also from the international ambitions of Poland, i.e. the EU and NATO accession.
Implementation effect of the Project, referred to as the Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning System (SMOK), forming a part of the B2 Component of the Emergency Flood Recovery Project will be the establishment of an up-to-date technical and methodological base. The base will ensure accurate and credible meteorology and hydrological protection of the national economy and the society. The Project aims at establishment in Poland of a comprehensive modern system for monitoring, forecasting and warning on dangerous natural phenomena (floods, gales, thunderstorms, etc.) and collection and dissemination of information upon the current and forecast condition of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. The system will cover the entire territory of Poland. Though focused primarily on flood management, the Motoring, Forecasting and Warning System also encompasses monitoring, forecasting and warning on other phenomena, such as thunderstorms, gales and storms. The System will operate effectively in the case of protracted drought, frosty winters with heavy snowfalls, running water pollution and radioactive air contamination.
The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management has been selected as the implementation unit for the B.2 Component, broken down into 9 Subcomponents. These have been discussed in the following sections of this booklet.
The launch of the Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning System will enable:
- Permanent, automated monitoring, transfer, processing and collection of data on the atmosphere and hydrosphere condition in Poland, with a predetermined interval adequate for the current and forecast situation. The System will include a network of automated meteorological and hydrological stations, thunderstorm detection and location network and weather radar network. Data fed form these networks and the data obtained under international cooperation will give grounds for forecasts and warning. The data will also be used for informing the society and State administration on the current and forecasted atmosphere and hydrosphere conditions.
- Effective and credible nowcasting and medium-range meteorological and hydrological forecasting. The expansion and upgrade of measurement network within the Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning System coupled with streamlined access to data from other sources (data exchange network of the World Meteorological Organization, high-resolution satellite data and numerical model results) will improve the forecasting process. Development of the own numerical meteorological model and preparation and operational use of hydrological model library will be another important elements of the system delivery.
- Comprehensive preparation and distribution of IMGW products (data, messages and forecasts) to the State administration and response units and water management institutions. The information transmission system continues as a crucial element of the flood monitoring and warning system. There will also be upgraded the system for data exchange within the hydrology and meteorology service and links with the Coordination and Information Centres.
Implementation within the Polish hydrological and meteorological service of the latest technological and technical developments available will require appointment of engineering and technical teams and new research and development efforts.
Following were considered during preparation of the Implementation Plan:
- The need for the Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning System to cover the entire territory of Poland, broken down into three hazard zones:
- Zone 1, featuring high installation density - along the Odra and Vistula, from springs to the estuaries, Upper Vistula catchment down to the Zawichost intersection, Middle Odra down to Nysa Kłodzka mouth and Żuławy Wiślane area.
- 2nd zone featuring medium installation density - the Vistula catchment between Zawichost intersection and the measurement profile below the mouth of Bzura river, the Odra catchment between Nysa Łużycka mouth and the measurement profile below the mouth of the Warta river, the Baltic coast and the estuary section of the Odra.
- 3rd zone featuring low installation density - the Lower Vistula catchment between the mouth of the Bzura river and Żuławy, the Odra catchment between the mouth of Warta river and Zalew Szczeciński and Baltic tributaries.
- The option of the System implementation based on the most advanced technology and scientific concepts, procured through the international bidding procedure;
- The need for the IMGW staff involvement in the System preparation, design and delivery stage in order to give credit to the specific nature of operation of IMGW and its measurement, observation, data collection and processing systems;
- The need for training of highly qualified experts on the system operation and maintenance.
- The need for equipping the observation and measurement function with the apparatus and equipment allowing for comprehensive calibration and on-going maintenance of the System.
Cooperation with the Flood Management Coordination Centre (Polish name: Ośrodek Koordynacyjno Informacyjny - OKI) has been identified as an important issue within the B.2 Component. Together with the response structure, the Centres will be the principal users of data generated within the Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning System. The OKI and IMGW will be integrated within a uniform telecommunication structure. The requirement of close cooperation between IMGW and OKI is the consequence of the use by both structures of the same hydrological models, calibrated on identical data. IMGW and OKI will also use the cross-sections and numerical models of flood plains developed within the B1 Component. Under this cooperation IMGW will prepare and supply the models of flood wave transformation in the river bed, whereas OKI will provide two-dimensional models, including artificial and natural inundation of terrain. As part of cooperation between components, IMGW will also provide the B.4 subcomponent with the methodology for local area assessment of flood hazard. On the basis of this methodology and information on the atmosphere and hydrosphere condition received from the Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning System and communal local area warning systems communes, or communal associations thereof will be able to warn local communities.
